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The Silent Treasury's avatar

Hello there,

Huge Respect for your work!

New here. No huge reader base Yet.

But the work has waited long to be spoken.

Its truths have roots older than this platform.

My Sub-stack Purpose

To seed, build, and nurture timeless, intangible human capitals — such as resilience, trust, truth, evolution, fulfilment, quality, peace, patience, discipline, relationships and conviction — in order to elevate human judgment, deepen relationships, and restore sacred trusteeship and stewardship of long-term firm value across generations.

A refreshing take on our business world and capitalism.

A reflection on why today’s capital architectures—PE, VC, Hedge funds, SPAC, Alt funds, Rollups—mostly fail to build and nuture what time can trust.

“Built to Be Left.”

A quiet anatomy of extraction, abandonment, and the collapse of stewardship.

"Principal-Agent Risk is not a flaw in the system.

It is the system’s operating principle”

Experience first. Return if it speaks to you.

- The Silent Treasury

https://tinyurl.com/48m97w5e

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Vítor Constâncio's avatar

Excellent analysis!. I fully agree that the dollar-based international monetary system is not collapsing, as besides inertia there is really no alternative. Nevertheless, a certain erosion of the dollar role is continuing to occur, particularly in what regards the reserves currency and trade invoicing. There is gold and a few other strong currencies that are very gradually substituting the dollar as reserves components. Concerning trade invoicing, consider the embryonic trade in renminbi for imports of oil from the UAE.. The weaponisation of the dollar for geopolitical objectives, started years ago, is contributing to a growing wish of several countries to find alternatives to the dollar. There is no global alternative, but the erosion has started.

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Gianluca Benigno's avatar

Thank you, Vitor. I fully agree with your remarks. To build on the discussion around the weaponisation of the dollar, I would add that the recent accord in the Middle East by the new U.S. administration could also be seen in that light, serving as a counterweight to the growing use of the renminbi in international invoicing

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IL GUSS - DOORS AND THOUGHTS's avatar

Thanks for putting data and reason on a distinct feeling I had that this time all what was unfolding before our eyes was about structures, not just market.

The alternative to the dollar you are searching for may not be necessary immediately. For, the US has surely made a huge mistake on one point: unlike the US, China is capable and willing to uphold a rules-based trade system, with adjustments maybe. ASEAN, the EU and most of Latin America can support and benefit for some time from such reduced world trade system. Under such a scenario, the alternative to the dollar is not urgent and can emerge in due course.

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Markets Zoon's avatar

In recent weeks, a subtle but powerful signal has emerged: the long-standing correlation between the U.S. dollar and global risk aversion appears to be shifting. Following what markets dubbed “liberation day,” the dollar weakened sharply against major currencies; most notably, the euro. This move was unexpected. Reserve status is not a birthright. It comes with stringent, often overlooked requirements.

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