Completely agree on understanding where MPC members sit on the three scenarios as the best means to understand the Bank’s trajectory (I took this approach too in my analysis)
What i struggle to see is this being Mann potentially putting a hike on the table - it contradicts her “Boogie Dancing” comments in mid September and in 2023. If not Mann than that leaves either the policymaker considering a hike a different member (unlikely?) or maybe “activist” means something else?
Read your very good piece. I tend to agree on pricing more cuts than what the market is currently expecting. The other aspect to keep in mind is the fact that there is so much uncertainty going into 2025 that it is hard to see beyond the short horizon.
Hi James: thanks for your response. Yes, I interpreted activists as a possibility that that committee member might consider raising rates. For me, that is Mann as she voted against the cut in November and she stated her view also here during the TSC testimony. https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/a9bcdc4d-79bc-4806-b300-d8c9510b2fdf
Cheers for the link - perhaps the way to justify it is that activist means hike and the member is Mann. She avoids “boogie dancing” with a hike because she doesn’t believe that the bank should be in a place to cut at all in 2025.
Hike in early 2025 + no cut in the rest of the year = no boogie dance. So maybe you are right there!
Completely agree on understanding where MPC members sit on the three scenarios as the best means to understand the Bank’s trajectory (I took this approach too in my analysis)
What i struggle to see is this being Mann potentially putting a hike on the table - it contradicts her “Boogie Dancing” comments in mid September and in 2023. If not Mann than that leaves either the policymaker considering a hike a different member (unlikely?) or maybe “activist” means something else?
My views are broadly similar:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jamesneilbennett_bmi-activity-7275545085432201217-mNyw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios
Read your very good piece. I tend to agree on pricing more cuts than what the market is currently expecting. The other aspect to keep in mind is the fact that there is so much uncertainty going into 2025 that it is hard to see beyond the short horizon.
Thanks! And completely agree there are so many variables in the air (domestic and external)
I think the only thing we can have some confidence on is that rate pricing is going to be all over the place over the coming months/quarters
Hi James: thanks for your response. Yes, I interpreted activists as a possibility that that committee member might consider raising rates. For me, that is Mann as she voted against the cut in November and she stated her view also here during the TSC testimony. https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/a9bcdc4d-79bc-4806-b300-d8c9510b2fdf
Cheers for the link - perhaps the way to justify it is that activist means hike and the member is Mann. She avoids “boogie dancing” with a hike because she doesn’t believe that the bank should be in a place to cut at all in 2025.
Hike in early 2025 + no cut in the rest of the year = no boogie dance. So maybe you are right there!
We will see. Maybe she will clarify in her next speech!